Friday, August 10, 2007

WP48 and the Charlotte Bobcats

I am a fervent Wages of Wins disciple. The Wages of Wins is a book written by David Berri that promotes a new formula for evaluation player talent: Win Score per minute. In his book, Berri notes that our tendency as NBA fans is too overemphasize the importance of scoring while underemphasizing the importance of rebounding, ball control, and shooting efficiency.

Win Score per minute is calculated using the following formula: Points + Rebounds + Steals + ½Assists + ½Blocked Shots – Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers - ½Free Throw Attempts - ½Personal Fouls) / Minutes. It is a rough approximation of Berri's metric, WP48. For the purposes of this blog, we will use the terms interchangeably.

Applying the WP48 formula to the Bobcats' 06-07 squad yields the following results (courtesy of Jason Chandler's excellent blog:) (note that 0.100 is average)

Emeka Okafur: .299
Gerald Wallace: .247
Sean May: .187
Matt Carroll: .114
Derek Anderson: .110
Walter Hermann: .099
Brevin Knight: .095
Raymond Felton: .054
Jake Voskuhl: .013
Jeff McInnis: -.044
Primoz Brezec: -.108
Adam Morrison: -.175

Much of this blog will be dedicated to analyzing these numbers. Here are some brief thoughts:
  • Okafur is a superstar.
  • The Bobcats would have been crazy to let Wallace go.
  • Sean May is severely underrated.
  • Raymond Felton must improve.
  • Adam Morrison should be benched.
I will expand on these comments in future entries.


7 comments:

Brett said...

I clicked through to the wages of wins from your blog, and checked out the mid-season review for the Bobcats. At that point, Gerald was at 0.098, but finished the year much higher as noted in your blog: I knew he had picked it up in the second half of the season, but I had no idea how much. Makes me wonder what the Bobcats would have finished up at if Wallace hadn't gotten hurt early in the season, and Morrison received fewer minutes all year.

Will Cannon said...

Brett,

Great point. Another player who dramatically improved over the course of the season was Walter Hermann. His WP48 was dismal for the first half, but his second-half performance was outstanding. I'm not sure where Hermann fits into the new rotation, but I hope they continue giving him meaningful minutes.

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