I am very high on Jared Dudley. Why? He excelled at Boston College.
David Berri explains that college play is a strong indicator of NBA play. In fact, it's a better predictor than draft position. The fact that Jared Dudley slid to the Bobcats at the 22nd pick speaks little about his prospect as a pro.
Instead, let's take a look at the superior predictor - college stats. In his senior year, Dudley averaged 19 pounds and 8 rebounds while shooting 56% from the floor (and 44% behind the arc). And Dudley wasn't putting up these numbers in the MAC; he was the 2007 ACC Player of the Year. According to David Berri's productivity/minute metric, Dudley was the second-best swing man in college last season, behind only Kevin Durant. He was significantly better than Corey Brewer, Jeff Green, Thaddeus Young, and Julian Wright. He was even better than the Bobcats' top 10 pick, Brandan Wright.
Past college performance predicts future pro results, so we have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Dudley. If he finds his way onto the floor next season - granted, a big "if" - I expect Dudley to shine.
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6 comments:
What does looking at prospects in this way say about Morrison? He was quite the prolific scorer in college, but he was a sub-par rebounder and not much of a creator for his teammates. Does Berri have a similar chart for the 2006 draft (or earlier) that let's us look back at last season and see how effective this view can be?
I was pleased with the Dudley pick, acknowledging that he does not have the potential to be an all-star, but should be a solid contributor. And that's what the Bobcats need: More good players, to build their depth to withstand injuries over the course of the season.
Brett -
You are spot on regarding Morrison. He was taken 3rd in the draft, but he was the 10th in productivity among draft-eligible college players. Here is a link to the full chart:
http://www.wagesofwins.com/Draft2006.html
His shortcomings (rebounds, turnovers, assists, blocks, steals, shooting efficiency) showed up in college too, although his FG% was markedly higher at Gonzaga than in the NBA.
One interesting note about the chart above - it predicted the success of Millsap, Balkman, Rondo, and Craig Smith, all stand-out rookies taken after the 13th pick.
JJ Reddick was the ACC player of the year in '05 and '06, and it hasn't exactly translated in NBA success--a mediocre 6 points per game (in ~15 minutes of work). Besides that, he shot poorly from the field (41%) despite being decent from the arc (39%).
'04 ACC POY was Julius Hodge, a guy who doesn't have a job in the NBA anymore.
That said, I agree Dudley will be an okay NBA player, but I don't consider being the ACC POY (or any conference's POY) convincing support for this prediction.
Benny -
I absolutely agree! The fact that a player was voted ACC Player of the Year is relatively worthless in predicting NBA success. Why? Because I think votes are based on points scored, ignoring all other aspects of the game.
Check out the link in the third comment to this thread - J.J. Reddick's college statistics predicted that he would be a poor pro player - worse than Adam Morrison, even. Presumably this is on account of Reddick's inability to contribute much aside from a jumpshot.
It's college stats that predict pro success. Thanks for pointing out that Player of the Year is an unreliable predictor.
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