Bobcats Add 3 More to Roster

Last night, the Kinston Free Press broke the story on the Bobcats bringing three new players into its preseason camp. Can we pause for a moment to reflect on this.... Richard Walker of the Kinston Free Press is breaking Bobcats news, while the Observer is totally silent. Thank goodness for Bobcats blogs and discussion forums - I was alerted to the Free Press story by a post on Bobcats Planet's message board.

Enough venting, on to the Free Press story. The Bobcats are bringing in 7'1 center Deji Akindele, 6'7 forward Gabe Muoneke, and 6'2 guard C.J. Watson. Akindele and Muoneke are NBDL guys, while CJ Watson played college ball at Tennessee from 2003-06.

I reserve the right to get behind Akindele - we could use another big body, and Akindele was Defensive Player of the Year in the Mid-Continent Conference in 2005. He may be a nice addition to our squad.

That said.....Bobcats, you have to bring back Derek Anderson.

Bobcats Links

A few quick Bobcats related links.

• Tom Sorenson's gooey Observer op-ed column about Jason Richardson visiting an elementary school. Sorenson states that the way Richardson handles himself around children is "telling". Telling as to what? Not sure... Babysitting prowess? What a ridiculous column.
  

• Queen City Hoops' 9 ingredients for a successful season. I agree wholeheartedly with this analysis. I would also like to emphasize the need for Felton to stay healthy. Felton is merely average. But McInnis is utterly horrible. The Bobcats can weather injuries to anyone except Okafor, Wallace, and Felton. If they go down, so do the Bobcats. By the way, any column that starts with a Transformers reference is A-OK in my book.

• ESPN's Marc Stein evaluates the Bobcats' off-season. Stein: (i) questions Richardson's status as a go-to player; (ii) chides the Bobcats for not re-signing Okafor; (iii) questions the team's dedication to Morrison; and (iv) absolutely destroys Coach Vincent. I'm on board with Stein's first three points, but the last seemed too personal. Do Stein and Vincent have history?
  

Hopefully this weekend we will learn the identity of the Bobcats' mysterious 12th man.

Esteban Batista, Man of Mystery

I'm reading reports that the Bobcats are in talks with center Esteban Batista. I know next to nothing about this guy, aside from his solid rebounding stats and strong FIBA performance.

Does anyone else?

Backseat GM-ing

I've been backseat GM-ing a lot lately. I argued that: (i) Adonal Foyle should be signed; (ii) Derek Anderson should be re-signed; (iii) Jeff McInnis should be dropped; (iv) Emeka Okafor's contract should be extended; and (v) Dikembe Mutombo should at least be courted.

None of these happened.

It appears that the Bobcats decided after the draft that they're finishing maneuvering.

I can't help but feel that in the blackjack game of the NBA, the Bobcats are staring at 14 and choosing to stay.

Bobcats Must Pursue Mutombo

Coach Vincent recently discussed roster moves with Charlotte Observer reporter Rick Bonnell. As our friends at Bobcats Bonfire intimated early this week, the Bobcats are looking for another center. Vincent mentioned two options - Michael Ruffin and Marc Jackson.

These are poor choices.

In 300 minutes of play last season, Ruffin shot less than 30% and managed a 1:2 rebound/turnover ratio. That's abysmal. His WP48 was -0.035. Jackson wasn't any better. In 1,000 minutes of play, he shot 41% and earned a WP48 of -0.079. Why are we even considering them?

Although most quality free agents have already been signed, an incredible center remains on the market - Dikembe Mutombo.

According to ESPN.com reports, Mutombo is close to signing a 1-year contract with Houston for $1.9 million, the maximum Houston could pay under the salary cap. Why don't we make a run at him?

Last season, Mutombo played 1,331 minutes. He shot 56% from the floor. He pulled in 499 rebounds. He blocked 79 shots. He only committed 38 turnovers. That's tremendous output from a back-up center. Who cares how old he is? If he puts up numbers that approach last season's, he will be a massive upgrade for the Bobcats. Mutombo's WP48 last season? 0.332. That's one of the highest in the entire NBA.

Signing Mutombo for $2.5 or $3 million next season would be an absolute steal. Why would the Bobcats pursue Marc Jackson when they could land one of the most dominant big men in the NBA? Even better, his salary is a staggering bargain.

I hope the Bobcats are on the phone with Mutombo's agents right now.

Bobcats 07/08 Salaries

I was inspired to take a look at the Bobcats' salary situation by Sean Deveney's "Most Overpaid Players" article (and David Berri's response).

Here are their 07/08 salaries (rounded to the nearest hundred thousand dollars):

Jason Richardson - $11.1 million
Gerald Wallace - $9.5 million
Matt Carroll - $5.5 million
Emeka Okafor - $5.4 million
Adam Morrison - $3.9 million
Raymond Felton - $3.3 million
Primoz Brezec - $2.8 million [potentially a "great bargain", says Queen City Hoops]
Othella Harrington - $2.4 million
Walter Hermann - $2.0 million
Sean May - $1.9 million
Brevin Knight - $1.5 million (buyout)
Jared Dudley - $1.1 million
Jeff McInnis - $1.1 million ["not a bad price", says Rick Bonnell]
Ryan Hollins - $0.7 million
Jermareo Davidson - $0.4 million

Obviously we are paying well below market for Okafor; his salary should more than double when he signs his extension. Otherwise, these salaries look about right. Kudos to the Bobcats management.

The biggest bargain may be Sean May. He is routinely destroyed by commenters at Rick Bonnell's Charlotte Observer blog, but May has the potential to average 12 points and 12 rebounds next season. And for that potential, we're paying less than $2 million this year. What do we have to complain about?

Hat tip to ShamSports for the salary info, and Kelly Dwyer at TrueHoop for recommending them.

Jared Dudley - Impact Player

I am very high on Jared Dudley. Why? He excelled at Boston College.

David Berri explains that college play is a strong indicator of NBA play. In fact, it's a better predictor than draft position. The fact that Jared Dudley slid to the Bobcats at the 22nd pick speaks little about his prospect as a pro.

Instead, let's take a look at the superior predictor - college stats. In his senior year, Dudley averaged 19 pounds and 8 rebounds while shooting 56% from the floor (and 44% behind the arc). And Dudley wasn't putting up these numbers in the MAC; he was the 2007 ACC Player of the Year. According to David Berri's productivity/minute metric, Dudley was the second-best swing man in college last season, behind only Kevin Durant. He was significantly better than Corey Brewer, Jeff Green, Thaddeus Young, and Julian Wright. He was even better than the Bobcats' top 10 pick, Brandan Wright.

Past college performance predicts future pro results, so we have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Dudley. If he finds his way onto the floor next season - granted, a big "if" - I expect Dudley to shine.

Inexplicable Signing of McInnis

The Bobcats' string of savvy off-season moves just snapped. The Bobcats inexplicably re-signed Jeff McInnis.

On the Observer website, Rick Bonnell points out that McInnis averaged 4.3 points and 3.3 assists last season. What Bonnell fails to mention is that McInnis made less than 40% of his field goals, made less than 70% of his free throws, and managed only 14 steals in 700 minutes of play. His WP48 rating (discussed in David Berri's book The Wages of Wins), is a meager -0.026. The average NBA player has a WP48 of 0.100, so McInnis is significantly sub-par.

It pains me to see the Bobcats sign Jeff McInnis over Derek Anderson. As I stressed in a previous post, this move will cost the Bobcats wins.

Bobcats' Player Efficiency Breakdown

Our friends over at Queen City Hoops recently provided plus/minus numbers for each player on the 06-07 Bobcats roster. Although I prefer the WP48 metric promulgated in The Wages of Wins, I think there is also great value in plus/minus numbers, and I have been anxiously awaiting this column. Some observations:

• As I noted in a previous post, Derek Anderson played at a very high level last season, and bringing him back to the Bobcats should be a priority.
  
• Adam Morrison's rookie season was a slow motion car crash.
• Walter Hermann was very successful last season. But was his success due to growth as a player, or was it due to playing against tanking opponents' back-up players? Next season will be illuminating.

There's must more to be gleaned from the data, so I encourage you to head over to Queen City Hoops at this link and check it out for yourself.

Lock down Okafor. Now.

Emeka Okafor is one of the fifteen best players in the NBA. Want proof? Last season, his WP48 was 0.299. As a point of reference, 0.100 is average, and 0.300 is a superstar. (For a list of each NBA player's WP48, click here and sort by WP48). A WP48 of .299 places Okafor among the fifteen best players in the league.

This next stat is staggering. In a recent post at the Wages of Wins Journal, David Berri noted that in the past 28 years, no team has won an NBA title without a player on the roster with a WP48 of 0.300 or above.

Emeka Okafor, with his WP48 of 0.299, is on the cusp of superstardom. There are only a handful of these superstars in the NBA. If we have the opportunity to lock one down for the next six years, we must.

Thankfully, the Bobcats appear to be making headway in that regard. According to HoopsWorld.com:

Okafor is confident that he and the team will come to an agreement soon, keeping him in Bobcat Orange for the foreseeable future. "It's going to happen," Okafor said. "We're in the process of talking about it."

"When the Bobcats and I come to a mutual agreement, it'll be cool," he added.

And one of the league's premier talents will be a Bobcat for years to come. Cool indeed.

Diamonds in the Rough

The Wages of Wins Journal recently assessed the available NBA free agents. I hope the Bobcats are paying attention. Quoting WoWJ:

When we look at the 21 unrestricted free agents who played at least 500 minutes this past season (and who had not signed when I created this table this past weekend) we see seven players who were above average in terms of WP48.

The seven available free agents earning an above-average WP48 in 06-07, as of August 1, 2007:

Player: WP48
Dikembe Mutombo: 0.336
James Posey: 0.195
Ruben Patterson: 0.166
Devin Brown: 0.130
Brevin Knight: 0.129
Derek Anderson: 0.128
Chris Webber: 0.108

The Bobcats are likely unable to afford Mutombo, Posey, Patterson, or Webber. Brevin Knight was signed to the Clippers. This leaves Devin Brown and our own Derek Anderson.

Devin Brown is a 6'5 shooting guard who contributed a lot of quality minutes to the NO Hornets last season. He is a strong rebounder who would serve as a nice complement to Matt Carroll. Best of all, he's affordable.

Derek Anderson was highly successful for Charlotte last season. Queen City Hoops recently reviewed last season's most successful Bobcats lineups. The Bobcats three best lineups all featured Derek Anderson. Clearly, Anderson played a large role in the Bobcats late-season success - why not bring him back and build on it? Anderson is affordable, and it's clear that despite his age (33) he can still play.

The final point I'll make is that the Bobcats should not resign their other free agent, Jeff McInnis. Last season, his WP48 was -0.026. He literally cost the team wins. Although the best option at PG (Brevin Knight) is off the table, there are superior players available (Earl Boykins, for one).

Devin Brown, Derek Anderson, and Adonal Foyle are diamonds in the rough, but Jeff McInnis is worthless coal.

Foyle to the Bobcats?

The Golden State Warriors cut Adonal Foyle yesterday. The Bobcats should give him a hard look. He's perfect for a number of reasons:

• Interior defense. As previously discussed, the Bobcats are thin at the five. Primoz Brezec looks to receive significant playing time, which will lead to countless low-post mismatches. Foyle is a famously tough defender and a steady rebounder/shot-blocker. He's 6'10 and 270 pounds. Foyle would be a significant upgrade, and at age 32 he has at least another season of quality back-up play in him.
• Salary. Foyle could be our Grant Hill - a veteran who takes less money to play for a hungry team. Foyle's contract with Golden State paid him $42 million over the last six years. Foyle may be willing to accept a smaller salary in exchange for receiving consistent playing time. Last season in Golden State, he averaged 10 minutes/game. With the Bobcats, he could play 15-20. The Bobcats must reserve enough cap space to extend Okafor, but there is money left over. A short-term, low-dollar deal for Foyle would be a great use for this excess.
  
• Shot selection. Foyle rarely shoots. Throughout his career, he ranked near the bottom of the league in shots/possession. The Bobcats do not need another scorer - Okafor, Wallace, Richardson, May, and Hermann can carry that burden (Felton's omission was intentional). Foyle would step in as a clear role player - defend, rebound, protect the lane. His reluctance to shoot would be a blessing.

One man's trash is another man's treasure. Foyle is a great fit in Charlotte. Will Jordan notice?

Bobcats Are All the Rage

Two of the leading NBA blogs assessed the Bobcats in recent days. The outlook is generally quite positive.

Kelly Dwyer at TrueHoop (pinch-hitting for Henry Abbott) summarized our squad as follows: "That's a good team. That could be a really good team. A trade or two, and that could be a 50-win team." You can read the entire column at this link.

Meanwhile, my hero in the field of sports economics, David Berri, not only reviewed the Bobcats, but he steered his readers to this blog. Outstanding! Berri noted that Michael Jordan might be on his way towards rehabilitating his reputation as a lackluster NBA GM. Berri provided the following outlook: "The team has two very productive players in Okafor and Wallace, and Richardson looks like a player that can help. So maybe MJ is on his way to becoming a 'good' general manager." Although there are hurdles to overcome (for example, Morrison), Berri thinks the Bobcats are improving. You can read the entire post at this link.

The subject of this post is, of course, a joke. I am realistic about the level of national interest in the Bobcats. On Entourage earlier this summer, Ari used the Bobcats as the punchline of his "NBA team you don't care about" joke. Although Ari abandoning Bobcats tickets scored laughs in June of 06, I think the days of the Bobcats serving as punchlines are over. We're cellar-dwellers no longer.

WP48 and the Charlotte Bobcats

I am a fervent Wages of Wins disciple. The Wages of Wins is a book written by David Berri that promotes a new formula for evaluation player talent: Win Score per minute. In his book, Berri notes that our tendency as NBA fans is too overemphasize the importance of scoring while underemphasizing the importance of rebounding, ball control, and shooting efficiency.

Win Score per minute is calculated using the following formula: Points + Rebounds + Steals + ½Assists + ½Blocked Shots – Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers - ½Free Throw Attempts - ½Personal Fouls) / Minutes. It is a rough approximation of Berri's metric, WP48. For the purposes of this blog, we will use the terms interchangeably.

Applying the WP48 formula to the Bobcats' 06-07 squad yields the following results (courtesy of Jason Chandler's excellent blog:) (note that 0.100 is average)

Emeka Okafur: .299
Gerald Wallace: .247
Sean May: .187
Matt Carroll: .114
Derek Anderson: .110
Walter Hermann: .099
Brevin Knight: .095
Raymond Felton: .054
Jake Voskuhl: .013
Jeff McInnis: -.044
Primoz Brezec: -.108
Adam Morrison: -.175

Much of this blog will be dedicated to analyzing these numbers. Here are some brief thoughts:

• Okafur is a superstar.
• The Bobcats would have been crazy to let Wallace go.
• Sean May is severely underrated.
• Raymond Felton must improve.
• Adam Morrison should be benched.

I will expand on these comments in future entries.

Thin at the Five

Behind Emeka Okafor, the Bobcats' depth chart is paper thin - pun very much intended. Primoz Brezec is unquestionably the team's back-up center. Unfortunately, last season proved that Primoz is not physical enough to stand up to the Dwight Howards and Eddy Currys of the Eastern Conference - and Kevin Garnett is waiting in the wings.

Last season, Primoz took a step backwards. He played weak defense, rarely rebounded, shot 63% from the free throw line, and fouled at an incredible rate. When Okafor was injured, the Bobcats looked to Primoz to step up and produce, but Primoz dropped the ball.

These shortcomings notwithstanding, Primoz remains the cream of the Bobcats' back-up center crop. Jake Voskuhl outplayed Primoz last season, but Voskuhl will be playing home games in Milwaukee next season. Ryan Hollins, the 7'0 UCLA alum, has been unimpressive in limited minutes. Othella Harrington was supposed to provide toughness, but instead provided foul trouble.

If the Bobcats are going to be successful next season, Primoz Brezec must step up during this off-season. He needs to hit the weights. He needs to practice free throws. He needs to defend against 6'11, 280-pound competition. And most importantly, Primoz needs to recognize his importance to the team and play like he deserves his spot.